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Tracking the Heat Pump & Water Heater Market in the United States - RMI

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Oct 30, 2024

Tracking the Heat Pump & Water Heater Market in the United States - RMI

This data hub spotlights publicly available national HVAC and water heating shipment data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Heat pump appliances play a vital role

This data hub spotlights publicly available national HVAC and water heating shipment data from the Air Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Heat pump appliances play a vital role in the clean energy transition and lowering building emissions thanks to their ability to efficiently provide heating and cooling while replacing the use of onsite fossil fuels. Monthly charts reflect the average of the previous 12 months to remove seasonal variations. This page will be updated every 3 months.

Heat pumps have outsold gas furnaces consistently since 2021. Shipments of HVAC equipment decreased worldwide in 2023, likely due to inflationary pressures and broad economic slowdowns. Heat pumps maintained their market share during this dip, indicating sustained demand even in the face of tighter budgets for many homeowners. More recent data shows heat pump shipments rebounding to near-all-time highs, with gas furnace shipments failing to improve from record highs in 2021. Shipments are expected to continue increasing as states roll out Inflation Reduction Act home efficiency and appliance rebate programs, which represent up to $10,000 in new incentives for heat pump installations.

Over the last 20 years, heat pumps have overtaken gas furnaces in annual shipments and continue to be the most common type of heating system shipped.

Electric water heaters continue to make up the majority of both residential and commercial water heater shipments, increasing in market share by 0.4% over the last 12 months. The water heater market is generally less volatile than the space heating market.

While shipment and market share data is more limited specifically for heat pump water heaters, ENERGY STAR data suggests that heat pump water heaters made up 4% of residential electric water heater sales in 2023. New federal efficiency standards for water heaters will bring this number over 50% by 2029.